Uh Oh – Time to Check the Numbers

Okay, so last post I was riding high on my picks based on absolutely no statistical proof. And this started to worry. Worry me as greatly as fantasy baseball can -which is somewhere between "did I leave my gym lock at home?" and "do khaki pants and a hawaiian shirt match?"

So rather than start the season feeling like Charles in Charge, I thought it would be a good exercise to compare projected stats for my drafted players and compare them to the average winning totals from a series of leagues last year.

So let’s take a look…

Last year’s averages:

AVG – .294

Runs – 925

HR – 250

RBI – 900

SB – 166

W – 100

SV – 118

K – 1200

ERA – 3.67

WHIP – 1.21

My team:

Average Run HR RBI SB
Michael Barrett 0.292 57 17 62 0
Albert Pujols 0.331 127 47 125 9
Julio Lugo 0.292 85 9 58 22
Chad Tracy 0.286 81 21 79 4
Felipe Lopez 0.270 91 13 61 25
Grady Sizemore 0.287 118 27 88 19
Jermaine Dye 0.288 88 35 101 7
Alex Rios 0.286 70 16 73 14
Travis Hafner 0.302 98 39 112 1
Total: 0.293 815 224 759 101

Bench:

Alex Gordon 0.285 79 21 78 13
Willy Taveras 0.304 89 3 35 36
Josh Willingham 0.271 72 24 74 3

Pitching:

Wins Saves K ERA WHIP
Dan Haren 15 0 163 3.98 1.24
Erik Bedard 14 0 160 3.81 1.34
B.J. Ryan 4 40 93 2.25 1.06
J.J. Putz 4 39 77 3.08 1.13
Brad Lidge 4 32 100 3.35 1.20
Jon Garland 14 0 111 4.39 1.33
A.J. Burnett 12 0 146 3.72 1.28
Total: 67 111 850 3.51 1.23

Bench

Dave Bush 13 0 142 3.95 1.21
Jonathan Broxton 4 7 85 2.93 1.20

The numbers seem to indicate I am somewhere towards the top and leads me to think that I should stay with my team right now and make some adjustments once the season starts – picking up "breakout players" and trying to ride some hot streaks like Secretariat at Belmont.

I should note that while my pitcher number projections are considerably lower compared to last year’s winning numbers the reason for my lack of concern is that traditionally pitching projections are made on the conservative side.

So let me know what you think – what positions should I look to strengthen? Where are my strengths?

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